Stop giving me what might possibly probably happen! CNN's just given Pennsylvania to Obama after about a thousand votes were counted - this is not a surprise, more of a relief, because McCain needs it to have a realistic chance of winning. MSNBC is now broadcasting from a virtual arched classical studio that looks like series 8 of Knightmare.

Frustratingly it's not definite at all yet, but I can no longer keep decent track of what's actually likely and will just agree with them, because I'm such a maverick that I'm relinquishing my maverick status.

States so far: About 15/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 136ish/538
Democrats: 102ish
Republicans: 34ish